Winners and Losers in Five-Year Population Growth Forecasts
The traditional adage "Follow the money" takes on a new dimension in commercial real estate, where success often hinges on following the people. Population trends and demographic shifts dictate demand, ultimately driving investment opportunities across multifamily, office, retail, hotel, and other property types. Assets tend to migrate to areas where people are moving, creating dynamic markets for development and investment.
To provide deeper insights into these trends, Markerr has analyzed metro areas based on percentage population growth, absolute increases through 2024, historical five-year compound annual growth rates (CAGR), and forecasted five-year CAGR. This data offers a comprehensive view of where opportunities may lie in the evolving commercial real estate landscape. Florida and South Carolina are heavily represented.
The top 10 markets based on 2024 year-over-year population growth are Myrtle Beach, SC (3.4%); Lakeland, FL (2.9%); North Port, FL (2.4%); Fayetteville, AR (2.0%); Charleston, SC (2.0%); Provo-Orem, UT (1.7%); Raleigh, NC (1.7%); Orlando, FL (1.7%); Palm Bay, FL (1.6%); and Boise City, ID (1.6%).
The bottom 10 markets are primarily in the Northeast, especially New York, and a few parts of California. The regions include Rochester, NY (-0.2%); Detroit, MI (-0.2%); Pittsburgh, PA (-0.3%); Buffalo, NY (-0.3%); San Francisco, CA (-0.3%); Thousand Oaks, CA (-0.4%); New York NY (-0.4%); New Orleans, LA (-0.4%); Urban Honolulu, HI (-0.6%); and Los Angeles, CA (-0.7%).
The metros shift when looking at the absolute year-over-year change in population numbers. Top markets are concentrated in the South and Southeast, with Texas and Florida taking up seven of the top 10. The bottom markets are primarily in the Northeast, particularly parts of New York, and some parts of California.
The top 10 metros are Dallas, TX (123,748); Houston, TX (122,732); Atlanta, GA (57,698); Tampa, FL (47,462); Orlando, FL (47,390); Phoenix, AZ (43,672); Charlotte, NC (42,264); San Antono, TX (34,399); Austin, TX (32,331); and Miami, FL (29,532).
The bottom 10 are Thousand Oaks, CA (-3,082); Buffalo, NY (-3,528); New Orleans, LA (-5,340); Honolulu, HI (-6,164); Pittsburgh, PA (-6,584); Detroit, MI (-10,740); San Francisco, CA (-15,389); Los Angeles, CA (-84,526); and New York, NY (-85,809).
Finally, there are the top 10 and bottom 10 in order of forecasted five-year CAGR, which also shows the historical five-year CAGR. The top ones include Myrtle Beach, SC (historical, 4.6%, forecast, 3.9%); Lakeland, FL (4%, 3.6%); Sarasota, FL (3.1%, 3.3%); Fayetteville, AR (2.7%, 2.7%); Jacksonville, FL (2.2%, 2.7%); Daytona, Beach, FL (2.4%, 2.7%); Provo-Orem, UT (2.8%, 2.6%); Palm Bay, FL (2%, 2.5%); Boise, ID (2.6%, 2.4%); and Charleston, SC (2.3%, 2.3%).
The bottom 10 are San Jose, CA (-0.2%, -0.1%); Syracuse, NY (-0.7%, -0.2%); Baltimore, MD (-0.4%, -0.2%); Cleveland, OH (-0.1%, -0.2%); Pittsburgh, PA (-0.5%, -0.2%); Buffalo, NY (-0.3%, -0.2%); New York, NY (-0.8%, -0.2%); San Francisco, CA (-1%, -0.2%); Thousand Oaks, CA (-0.6%, -0.3%); and New Orleans, LA (-0.6%, -0.3%).
Source: GlobeSt/ALM